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StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast
North America | Europe | Asia
July 14, 2010
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.

StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.

Predicted Surprises for Q2 2010


BEXP: Brigham Exploration Company Predicted Surprise: 22.7%
Consensus: $0.08   StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.10   Report Date: 2-Aug-10
Analyst Highlights
Stephen Berman () of Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.13
Berman sees benefits from the Bakken wells, with increased production and increased production rates.
PCAR: Paccar Inc Predicted Surprise: 5.9%
Consensus: $0.19   StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.20   Report Date: 27-Jul-10
Analyst Highlights
Joel Tiss () of Buckingham Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.21
Jerry Revich () of Goldman Sachs & Co. has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.25
Tiss expects the pickup in end-consumer demand to reflect in higher-than-expected heavy truck demand.
CLH: Clean Harbors Predicted Surprise: 5.8%
Consensus: $0.80   StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.85   Report Date: 4-Aug-10
Analyst Highlights
Theodor Kundtz () of Needham & Company has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.94
Kundtz expects benefits from the Gulf oil clean-up effort to continue into 2011.
ABC: AmerisourceBergen Corp Predicted Surprise: 2.4%
Consensus: $0.49  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.50  Report Date: 27-Jul-10
Analyst Highlights
Brian Sozzi () of Wall Street Strategies has an estimate of $0.54
Ross Muken () of Deutsche Bank North America has an estimate of $0.51
Sozzi forecasts gains based on strong new business wins and increased penetration of existing customer accounts.
DIS: Walt Disney Company Predicted Surprise: 1.8%
Consensus: $0.59   StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.60   Report Date: 5-Aug-10
Analyst Highlights
David Joyce () of Miller Tabak & Co., Llc has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.61
Tony Wible () of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC has an estimate of $0.60
Wible sees Disney's efforts to revive the studio are bearing fruit, with the success of Alice in Wonderland and Toy Story 3.
Data through July 12, 2010
This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
 Quarter Accuracy
 Q1 2010 6/10
 Q4 2009 5/10
 Q3 2009 7/10
 Q2 2009 9/10
  27/40 (68%)

StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
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