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February 12, 2010
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.
StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.
SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.
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Predicted Surprises for FY 2009
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| 6758 JP: Sony Corporation |
Predicted Surprise: 88.0% |
| Consensus: ¥-14.83 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: ¥-1.78 |
Report Date: 14-May-10 |
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Analyst Highlights
Eiichi Katayama (  ) of Nomura Securities has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of ¥5.00 Shunsuke Tsuchiya (  ) of UBS Securities Japan Ltd has an estimate of ¥5.00 Katayama sees a return to profit in both the games and TV business.
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| MAP AU: Map Group |
Predicted Surprise: > 66.6% |
| Consensus: A$0.006 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: A$0.039 |
Report Date: 25-Feb-10 |
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Analyst Highlights
Ian Myles ( ) of Macquarie Research has an estimate of A$0.209 Cameron Mcdonald ( ) of Deutsche Bank Securities has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of A$0.114 Mcdonald expects rebounding traffic volumes to drive profits.
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| 7267 JP: Honda Motor Co Ltd |
Predicted Surprise: 28.8% |
| Consensus: ¥283.4 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: ¥365.0 |
Report Date: 25-Apr-10 |
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Analyst Highlights
Tatsuo Yoshida ( ) of UBS Securities Japan Ltd has an estimate of ¥400.0 Kota Yuzawa ( ) of Goldman Sachs & Co. has an estimate of ¥350.0 Yoshida likes Honda for its high capacity-utilization rates and flexible production line that can respond quickly, according to need.
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| 980 HK: Lianhua Supermarket Holdings Co |
Predicted Surprise: 7.5% |
| Consensus: CNY0.72 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: CNY0.77 |
Report Date: 31-Mar-10 |
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Analyst Highlights
Randy Zhou ( ) of UBS HK has an estimate of CNY0.81 Zhou believes the six-month-long Shanghai Expo will attract foot traffic and grow SSS.
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| TTAN IN: Titan Industries Ltd |
Predicted Surprise: 7.1% |
| Consensus: Rs50.67 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: Rs54.27 |
Report Date: 10-May-10 |
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Analyst Highlights
Augustya Somani ( ) of Kotak Securities has an estimate of Rs60.40 Percy Panthaki ( ) of HSBC Global Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of Rs57.69 Panthaki likes the first positive growth quarter in several quarters, and he expects a positive growth trend to continue because of successful product launches and strong watch margins.
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| Data through February 11, 2010 |
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This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
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