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StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast
North America | Europe | Asia
October 6, 2011
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.

StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.

Predicted Surprises for Q3 2011


TRV: Travelers Cos Inc Predicted Surprise: -25.2%
Consensus: $1.10  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.82  Report Date: 19-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Julia Ferguson () of Dowling & Partners Securities has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.75
Another top StarMine rated analyst () has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.77
MS: Morgan Stanley Predicted Surprise: -25.0%
Consensus: $0.35  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.26  Report Date: 20-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Meredith Whitney () of Meredith Whitney Advisory Llc has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.28
Another top StarMine rated analyst () has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.30
AA: Alcoa Inc. Predicted Surprise: -7.5%
Consensus: $0.23  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.21  Report Date: 11-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
David Lipschitz () of Credit Agricole Securities has an estimate of $0.16
Another top StarMine rated analyst () has an estimate of $0.23
RSH: RadioShack Corporation Predicted Surprise: -4.7%
Consensus: $0.37  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.35  Report Date: 24-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
David Strasser () of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC has an estimate of $0.34
Another top StarMine rated analyst() has an estimate of $0.33
NIHD: Nii Holdings Inc Predicted Surprise: -3.6%
Consensus: $0.62  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.60  Report Date: 27-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Jim Breen () of William Blair & Company, L.L.C has an estimate of $0.61
Data through October 5, 2011
This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
 Quarter Accuracy
 Q3 2011 8/10
 Q2 2011 7/10
 Q1 2011 7/10
 Q4 2010 8/10
  30/40 (75%)

StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
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