January 22, 2010 StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts. StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%. SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.

Predicted Surprises for Q4 2009

CNW: Con-Way Inc Predicted Surprise: -17.4% Consensus: $0.17  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.14  Report Date: 4-Feb-10 Analyst Highlights Justin Yagerman () of Deutsche Bank North America has an estimate of $0.14 Thomas Wadewitz () of J.P.Morgan has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.10 Wadewitz asserts that CNW faces significant cost pressures in 2010 and cuts both his Q4 and 2010 estimates. TOL: Toll Brothers Inc Predicted Surprise: -11.0% Consensus: -$0.38  StarMine SmartEstimate: -$0.42  Report Date: 1-Mar-10 Analyst Highlights Bose George () of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. has an estimate of -$0.41 Horne/Puryear () of Raymond James has an estimate of -$0.56 Horne/Puryear point to deteriorating margins and believe that the company lags other builders in impairment charges. FTO: Frontier Oil Corp Predicted Surprise: -4.2% Consensus: -$0.42  StarMine SmartEstimate: -$0.46  Report Date: 24-Feb-10 Analyst Highlights Blake Fernandez () of Howard Weil Inc. has an estimate of -$0.52 Fernandez says he expects lower refining margins to impact EPS. VNO: Vornado Realty Trust Predicted Surprise: -2.9% Consensus: $0.90  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.88  Report Date: 26-Feb-10 Analyst Highlights Ross Smotrich () of Barclays Capital has an estimate of $0.78 Smotrich expects weak toy sales at Toys R Us, a subsidiary, to be a drag on earnings. ANF: Abercrombie & Fitch Predicted Surprise: -2.1% Consensus: $0.88  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.86  Report Date: 16-Feb-10 Analyst Highlights Dorothy Lakner () of Caris & Company has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.81 David Glick () of Buckingham Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.80 Lakner cites lower-than-expected December sales and continued pressure on gross margin as drags on earnings.

Data through January 21, 2010

This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.

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