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StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast
North America | Europe | Asia
February 17, 2011
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.

StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.

Predicted Surprises for FY 2010


TTAN IN: Titan Industries Ltd Predicted Surprise: +7.6%
Consensus: Rs95.85  StarMine SmartEstimate: Rs103.18  Report Date: 31-May-10
Analyst Highlights
Percy Panthaki () of HSBC Global Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of Rs101.09
Richard Liu () of Jm Financial Inst Sec Pvt Ltd. has an estimate of Rs99.80
Panthaki sees consumer resilience and strong watch and jewelry growth.
1055 HK: China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Predicted Surprise: +7.6%
Consensus: CNY0.56  StarMine SmartEstimate: CNY0.60  Report Date: 10-Mar-11
Analyst Highlights
Paul Yong () of DBS Vickers has an estimate of CNY0.63
Yong anticipates higher traffic from Shanghai Expo and Golden Week.
7270 JP: Fuji Heavy Inds Ltd Predicted Surprise: +6.6%
Consensus: ¥88.10  StarMine SmartEstimate: ¥93.90  Report Date: 05-May-10
Analyst Highlights
Yasuaki Iwamoto () of Okasan Securities Co., Ltd has an estimate of ¥96.00
4661 JP: Oriental Land Co Ltd. Predicted Surprise: +5.2%
Consensus: ¥56.30  StarMine SmartEstimate: ¥59.25  Report Date: 01-May-11
Analyst Highlights
Hirotoshi Murakami () of Mitsubishi Ufj Ms Debtjpn Lang has an estimate of ¥58.90
Shun Tanaka () of SMBC Friend Research Center has an estimate of ¥61.00
Murakami believes higher visitor numbers and higher entrance fees will drive earnings.
386 HK: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Predicted Surprise: +2.7%
Consensus: CNY0.82  StarMine SmartEstimate: CNY0.84  Report Date: 29-Mar-11
Analyst Highlights
Andrew Chan () of Daiwa Securities Markets Hong has an estimate of CNY0.83
Lawrence Lau () of BOCI Research Limited has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of CNY0.88
Lau points to rising oil prices, improving chemicals business, and renminbi appreciation as positives.
Data through February 16, 2011
This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
 Quarter Accuracy
 February 2010 9/10
 March 2009 9/10
 February 2008 10/10
 November 2007 11/11
  39/41 (95%)

StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
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