|
January 22, 2010
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.
StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.
SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.
|
Predicted Surprises for Q4 2009
|
|
| TS: Tenaris Sa |
Predicted Surprise: 16.6% |
| Consensus: $0.42 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.49 |
Report Date: 24-Feb-10 |
|
Analyst Highlights
Alex Brooks (  ) of UBS (US) has an estimate of $0.49 Brooks anticipates the US oil services industry entering an inflationary period, as well as additional benefits from cold Atlantic weather.
|
| NYT: New York Times Co |
Predicted Surprise: 7.1% |
| Consensus: $0.37 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.40 |
Report Date: 10-Feb-10 |
|
Analyst Highlights
John Janedis (  ) of Wells Fargo Securities, Llc has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.43 Janedis expects improved newspaper ad market, finally reversing the downward revenue revisions trend in previous quarters.
|
| TSL: Trina Solar Ltd |
Predicted Surprise: 7.0% |
| Consensus: $0.57 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.61 |
Report Date: 1-Mar-10 |
|
Analyst Highlights
Sanjay Shrestha ( ) of Lazard Capital Markets has an estimate of $0.72 Vishal Shah ( ) of Barclays Capital has an estimate of $0.80 Shah believes lower input costs and higher more stable demand will increase earnings.
|
| NIHD: Nii Holdings Inc |
Predicted Surprise: 4.5% |
| Consensus: $0.58 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.61 |
Report Date: 25-Feb-10 |
|
Analyst Highlights
Rizwan Ali ( ) of Deutsche Bank North America has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.78 Ali predicts large growth potential due to small market shares of only 4% in Mexico and 1.4% in Brazil.
|
| GLW: Corning Incorporated |
Predicted Surprise: 2.9% |
| Consensus: $0.42 |
StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.44 |
Report Date: 26-Jan-10 |
|
Analyst Highlights
Yair Reiner ( ) of Oppenheimer & Co. has an estimate of $0.45 Ajit Pai ( ) of Thomas Weisel Partners has an estimate of $0.44 Reiner sees lean retailer inventory from solid TV sales in US, Europe and Japan as a driver for earnings.
|
|
|
| Data through January 21, 2010 |
|
This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
|
|
|
