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StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast
North America | Europe | Asia
October 6, 2011
StarMine quantitatively analyzes the earnings estimate accuracy of sell-side analysts and uses this information to create SmartEstimates. StarMine SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.

StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions.

Predicted Surprises for Q3 2011


HFC: Hollyfrontier Corp Predicted Surprise: +13.3%
Consensus: $2.02  StarMine SmartEstimate: $2.29  Report Date: 31-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Chi Chow () of Macquarie Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $2.49
Blake Fernandez () of Howard Weil Inc. has an estimate of $2.29
GNRC: Generac Holdings Inc Predicted Surprise: +10.7%
Consensus: $0.57  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.63  Report Date: 31-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Michael Halloran () of Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. has an estimate of $0.58
Stephen Sanders () of Stephens Inc. has an estimate of $0.67
UAL: United Continental Holdings Inc. Predicted Surprise: +5.1%
Consensus: $2.02  StarMine SmartEstimate: $2.12  Report Date: 17-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
James Higgins () of Ticonderoga Securities has an estimate of $2.11
Another top StarMine rated analyst () has an estimate of $2.07
NDAQ: Nasdaq Omx Group Inc Predicted Surprise: +4.0%
Consensus: $0.64  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.67  Report Date: 24-Oct-11
Analyst Highlights
Ed Ditmire () of Macquarie Research has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.68
Another top StarMine rated analyst () has a StarMine "Bold Estimate" of $0.69
NTES: Netease.Com Predicted Surprise: +3.0%
Consensus: $0.86  StarMine SmartEstimate: $0.89  Report Date: 14-Nov-11
Analyst Highlights
Mandar Baxi () of First Global Stockbroking Ltd. has an estimate of $0.96
C Ming Zhao () of Susquehanna Financial Group has an estimate of $0.93
Data through October 5, 2011
This newsletter features stocks that we predict will experience an earnings surprise in the upcoming reporting season. All surprise predictions are uncovered using the powerful analytic and screening capabilities of StarMine Professional.
 Quarter Accuracy
 Q3 2011 8/10
 Q2 2011 7/10
 Q1 2011 7/10
 Q4 2010 8/10
  30/40 (75%)

StarMine Professional provides analyst ratings and SmartEstimates for every stock around the world. Learn more with a free 30-day trial.
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